04.11.2024 15:30 Daniel Bauer, Senior Associate Dean for Programs | Wisconsin School of Business: Calculation of Enterprise Capital via Least-squares Monte Carlo – Regress Now or Later? (with Hongjun Ha)
There has been increasing interest in the estimation of risk capital within enterprise risk models, particularly through Monte Carlo methods. A key challenge in this area is accurately characterizing the distribution of a company’s available capital, which depends on the conditional expected value of future cash flows. Two prominent approaches are available: the “regress-now” method, which projects cash flows and regresses their discounted values on basis functions, and the “regress-later” method, which approximates cash
flows using realizations of tractable processes and subsequently calculates the conditional expected value in a closed form. This paper demonstrates that the left and right singular functions of the valuation operator serve as robust approximators for both approaches, enhancing their performance. Furthermore, we describe situations where each method outperforms the other, with the regress-later method demonstrating superior performance under certain conditions, while the regress-now method generally exhibiting greater robustness.
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